Analysis of the Irish Property Market:
2023-2024 with Forecasts for 2025

The Irish property market underwent significant developments over 2023 and 2024, shaped by fluctuating sale prices, regional disparities, and shifts in housing supply. By combining insights from the Property Price Register (PPR) and data from the Central Statistics Office (CSO), this analysis explores key trends and provides a forward-looking perspective for 2025.  

Note that for the purposes of data analysis, the CSO groups counties into certain regions as referenced below. These groupings are made up of the following:

Border (Cavan, Donegal, Leitrim, Monaghan, and Sligo)

Midlands (Laois, Longford, Offaly, and Westmeath)

West (Galway, Mayo, and Roscommon)

Mid-East (Kildare, Louth, Meath, and Wicklow)

Mid-West (Clare, Limerick, and Tipperary)

South-East (Carlow, Kilkenny, Waterford, and Wexford)

South-West (Cork and Kerry)

Key Trends in 2023 and 2024

1. Property Prices

National Trends:

The Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) climbed steadily through 2024, reaching a value of 188.5 in October, reflecting a 9.7% year-on-year increase. This growth positioned prices 15.2% above their peak levels during the 2007 property boom. Data from the PPR aligns with these findings, showing average sale prices rising across most regions.

Regional Insights:

Dublin: The capital maintained its position as the most expensive region, with an average sale price of €507,699 in 2023 and further increases observed in 2024. Median prices peaked in Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown at €645,000 by October 2024.

Wicklow: Outside Dublin, Wicklow recorded the highest median price, reaching €455,000 in September and October 2024.

South-East: CSO data highlighted a dramatic 53.7% increase in new dwelling completions, signaling potential easing of price pressures in the future.

2. Housing Supply

New Dwelling Completions:

In the first three quarters of 2024, 21,634 new dwellings were completed, a 3.1% decrease compared to 2023. However, Q3 2024 saw a recovery, with completions rising 6.3% year-on-year.

Apartments: Completions fell sharply by 17.7% in the first three quarters of 2024 compared to 2023, reflecting challenges in this segment.

Scheme Dwellings: Completions increased by 7.1% year-on-year, accounting for 53.2% of all completions in 2024.

Second-Hand Market:

The PPR data revealed strong activity in second-hand dwelling sales, with Dublin and Mid-East regions contributing the bulk of transactions. Rising prices in these regions suggest persistent demand pressures. This segment of the market experienced a significant decline in supply during the COVID-19 pandemic, with the number of second-hand homes listed for sale dropping from 67,000 in 2019 to just 45,000 by March 2021, during the height of the lockdowns. Over the next two years, this figure showed steady recovery, reaching 63,000 listings in 2022. However, the widely anticipated rise in interest rates, aimed at addressing inflation, led many homeowners to secure fixed-rate mortgages, some extending up to seven years. Combined with the impact of higher interest rates, this has placed substantial pressure on market liquidity. After peaking at 63,000 in 2022, the number of homes listed has steadily declined each month, falling to just over 51,000 by December 2024—the lowest level since mid-2021.

3. Regional Disparities

Winners:

• South-East, Mid-West, and South-West: These regions experienced substantial increases in new dwelling completions, with price growth remaining moderate, offering opportunities for prospective buyers.

• Dublin: Despite modest growth in completions (4.7%), the region’s high demand continues to drive prices upward.

Losers:

• Mid-East and West: Both regions saw reductions in dwelling completions (-20.7% and -14.7%, respectively), coupled with rising prices, exacerbating affordability issues.

• Border Region: Although prices remain relatively low, reduced completions (-7.5%) may limit future supply.

Forecast for 2025

Market Growth Projections:

1. Demand Pressures Persist:

Continued economic growth and population expansion will sustain demand, particularly in urban areas like Dublin and Cork.

Persistent shortages in new apartment completions may contribute to rising prices in the urban rental and purchase markets.

2. Regional Opportunities:

Regions such as the South-East and Mid-West, which have experienced significant increases in completions, are well-positioned for more balanced price growth in 2025.

3. Economic and Policy Influences:
   • Interest Rates: A stable or declining interest rate environment could bolster buyer confidence.
   • Government Initiatives: Policies aimed at increasing housing supply (e.g., social and affordable housing programs) may begin to mitigate price growth pressures, particularly outside Dublin.

Predicted Outcomes for 2025:

• Urban Areas: Dublin will likely see moderate growth in sale prices (~5-7%), while Cork and Galway may experience slightly higher rates of increase due to expanding tech and education sectors.
• Rural Regions: Areas like the Midlands and Border may see modest price corrections if supply constraints persist.
• Overall Market: National property prices are projected to grow by 3-5%, with regional variations driven by supply-demand dynamics.

Advice for Prospective Purchasers

1. Timing:

Buyers targeting high-demand areas like Dublin should act early in 2025 to secure better financing terms and avoid price hikes later in the year.

Those considering the South-East or Mid-West may benefit from waiting for additional supply to enter the market.

2. Type of Property:

Apartments may remain scarce and expensive in urban areas. Scheme dwellings in commuter belts offer a better balance of price and availability.

3. Long-Term Perspective:

With housing supply initiatives likely to bear fruit over the next few years, long-term buyers may see more stable price trends post-2025.

Conclusion

The Irish property market in 2024 was characterised by rising prices, regional disparities, and constrained supply. As we look ahead to 2025, prospective buyers should carefully consider regional opportunities and remain mindful of economic and policy shifts that may influence market dynamics. While prices are expected to rise moderately, increased supply in certain areas offers hope for a more balanced market in the years to come.